Calibration of transmission-dynamic infectious disease models: a scoping review and reporting framework

Calibration of transmission-dynamic infectious disease models: a scoping review and reporting framework

Publication date: Mar 11, 2025

Objective/BackgroundTransmission-dynamic models are commonly used to study infectious disease epidemiology. Calibration involves identifying model parameter values that align model outputs with observed data or other evidence. Inaccurate calibration and inconsistent reporting produce inference errors and limit reproducibility, compromising confidence in modeled results. No standardized framework exists for reporting on calibration of infectious disease models, and an understanding of current calibration approaches is lacking. MethodsWe developed a 15-item framework for reporting calibration practices and applied it in a scoping review to assess calibration approaches and evaluate reporting comprehensiveness in transmission-dynamic models of tuberculosis, HIV and malaria published between January 1, 2018, and January 16, 2024. We searched relevant databases and websites to identify eligible publications, including peer-reviewed studies where these models were calibrated to empirical data or published estimates. ResultsWe identified 411 eligible studies encompassing 419 models, with 74% (n=309) being compartmental models and 20% (n=82) individual-based models (IBMs). The predominant analytical purpose was to evaluate interventions (71% of models, n=298). Parameters were calibrated mainly because they were unknown or ambiguous (40%, n=168), or because determining their value was relevant to the scientific question beyond being necessary to run the model (20%, n=85). The choice of calibration method was significantly associated with model structure (p-value

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Concepts Keywords
25323613doi Calibration
Carrie Dynamic
Hiv Eligible
Library Epidemiology
Evaluate
Harvard
Infectious
January
Models
Peer
Published
Relevant
Reporting
Scoping
Transmission

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH infectious disease
pathway REACTOME Infectious disease
disease MESH tuberculosis
pathway KEGG Tuberculosis
disease MESH malaria
pathway KEGG Malaria

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